Wall Street predicts a Kamala Harris presidency

The stock market is suggesting a Kamala Harris presidency, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) indicating a 72% probability that the Democratic candidate wins in November. Meanwhile, a new Emerson College poll shows a majority of undecided voters deciding to support Harris in the last month.

Why the stock market’s bet matters: The Dow’s performance suggests a strong chance for Harris to win, finance analyst Mark Hulbert reports on MarketWatch. Historically, when the Dow’s year-to-date gain by mid-October exceeds 10% — as it does this year with a 13.4% rise — the incumbent party wins 78% of the time. Hulbert stresses that “the Dow’s indication of who will win the presidency deserves to be taken seriously,” as the stock market has proven to be a reliable predictor in over 30 elections. This data reportedly contrasts with electronic futures markets, which as of press time only give Harris a 42.1% chance. As the stock market is often viewed as a leading indicator of economic sentiment, its current surge is signaling optimism for Harris’ chances.
Winning undecided voters: Released on Friday, the Emerson College poll shows Harris leading former President Donald Trump 49% to 48% nationally, though this falls within the survey’s margin of error. Undecided voters are notably breaking toward Harris, with 60% of those who decided in the last month now supporting her, compared to just 36% for Trump. “Voters who made their decision on who to support over a month ago break for Trump, 52% to 48%, while voters who made up their mind in the last month or week break for Harris, 60% to 36%,” said polling director Spencer Kimball. “The 3% of voters who said they could still change their mind currently favor Harris, 48% to 43%.” Harris winning over late deciders could be crucial in the final weeks of the race, especially in battleground states.

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