Asia worries, hedges as US-Iran War reshapes the world order

As U.S. and Israeli forces wage war against Iran, Asian governments are racing to protect their citizens, secure energy supplies and navigate a conflict none of them asked for or wanted.

State of play: U.S. and Israeli forces began striking Iran at the end of February, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and triggering retaliatory strikes. A U.S. submarine also sank an Iranian frigate off Sri Lanka’s coast. With no endgame in sight, President Donald Trump has said hostilities could last up to four weeks.

Regional airspace shutdowns have sparked widespread flight disruptions and surging gas prices. Meanwhile, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for Asian energy imports, remains under threat. Trump’s planned visit to Beijing from March 31 to April 2 still appears to be on, though the ongoing crisis has complicated the agenda.

Asia’s response: Across the region, reactions largely tracked each government’s relationship with Washington. Taiwan was among the first to respond, with Deputy Foreign Minister Francois Wu characterizing the strikes as aimed at eliminating terrorism and Taipei’s representative office sending $180,000 in food packages and supplies to the Israeli city of Beit Shemesh. Meanwhile, China, Iran’s longtime strategic partner, condemned the strikes and rushed to repatriate stranded nationals.

Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae pledged to make “all-out efforts to restore peace,” with Foreign Minister Motegi meeting separately with both Israeli and Iranian ambassadors in Tokyo. South Korea confirmed talks with Washington about possibly relocating Patriot missile systems from the Peninsula. Meanwhile, North Korea took a sharply different stance, branding the strikes a “war of aggression” even when Pyongyang’s state media made no mention of Iran’s counterstrikes. India found itself most directly implicated after a U.S. sub sank an Iranian frigate that had recently participated in an Indian Navy exercise, and Modi offered only a muted call for “dialog and diplomacy.”

Southeast Asian governments calibrated their responses around diaspora worker safety and, in several cases, longstanding ties to Iran. Malaysia’s Anwar Ibrahim condemned Khamenei’s killing “unreservedly” and vowed to bring a motion before parliament censuring the attacks, while Indonesia’s Prabowo Subianto offered to travel to Tehran to mediate. The Philippines flagged the safety of its millions of nationals in the region as its top priority, while Thailand placed its nationals on alert with an evacuation plan in place.

Why this matters: The ongoing conflict carries direct stakes for many Asian Americans. The former Department of Defense’s 2023 demographics report, the most recent available, shows roughly one-third of active-duty service members identify as a racial minority. The Space Force is also the only branch where Asian Americans exceed their representation in the general population. When a war begins without a clear exit strategy, the burden falls disproportionately on minority service members, and the human cost grows the longer the war continues.

Beyond the battlefield, the economic and diaspora stakes are just as pressing. Millions of Asian Americans maintain family and financial ties to the countries now most disrupted. Rising fuel costs from Strait of Hormuz disruptions will also strain Asian American working-class households and small businesses. And as Trump’s Beijing summit approaches, with Taiwan’s status still unresolved, the broader consequences for the region are far from clear.